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Declarations 2026

Declaration on the Third Major Combat Operation, 2026.03.05

The government of the Untied States has declared the current war against Iran to be no war, but just a "Major Combat Operation". In a slight contradiction, the war effort is led by the War Ministry, not the Major Combat Operations Ministry. SDFM decided to use the term here to avoid speaking of WW III for the time being.

At the start of the Ukraine war, JCOT has warned that two concrete conflicts would break out under the shadow of the Ukraine war, the Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict over Karabakh and the conflict between Iran and Israel / USA, regarding nuclear weapons. This prediction proved to be correct. It is probable that this "widening of the conflict" will lead to further conflicts and to the inclusion of more and more actors into the ongoing conflicts, e.g. Azerbaijan, the Gulf states and even possibly Pakistan in the Iran conflict. At the end, an alignment of most major conflicts under the name "World War III" would be the consequence.

To avoid further escalation, the Federated Micronations appeal to all sides to cease hostilities and come back to the negotiation table. The Iranian leadership must see that they have to give their citizens a voice, allowing free elections. The U.S. and especially Israel must understand that they cannot dominate the region with their arms in the long term. We have already analyzed the long term future of Israel as a consequence of its development towards an ever more aggressive regional power under the term "Foregone Conclusion" .

Addendum, 2026.03.30

The first signs of the recognition of regional powers that Israel plays a destabilizing role and that they should work together to contain it can be seen in the meeting of the foreign ministers of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan in Islamabad on 2026.03.26. Especially the comments of the Turkish intelligence director Ibrahim Kalin have to be taken notice of. The SDFM admonishes the Israeli government to stop the escalation and work with regional powers to restore peace. There should be no illusion that the long term consequences for Israel might otherwise be shattering, independently of the end result of the ongoing conflict.

Declaration on the People's Republic of China, 2026.03.05

Both JCOT and SDFM expect that the People's Republic of China (PRC) is currently contemplating the consequences of the current U.S. policy which ignores international law and prefers unilateral acts against competing interests. It puts the PRC into a position where there are basically two options.

One path the PRC could follow is to accelerate the preparations for an invasion of Taiwan. For the PRC, the window of opportunity opens at the point when the U.S. are deeply mired in the Iran war, with ordinance stocks running low. It is impossible for Israel and the U.S. to just stop that war, as otherwise Iran will move on to build nuclear weapons, using the already enriched Uranium stocks they still possess.

Still, there are enough allied forces present in the Taiwan area which would turn against an invasion force, foremostly U.S. carriers and the Japanese army. It would thus be necessary for China to create further distraction. One way would be to convince Putin that a "small" incursion into NATO territory is possible. Another way would be an escalation between the Korean states. Then, war would basically extend all around the globe, similar to WW I and WW II.

In any case, an attempted invasion of Taiwan would lead to additional worldwide economic chaos, with trade suspended and production hindered by the destruction of Taiwanese chip manufacturers. The current economic model of the PRC requires trade as internal consumption remains restricted. The PRC would lose what they cherish, the option of becoming the leading nation of the world.

There is an alternative path for the PRC. The current party dictatorship led by a single person is not stable - the chairman will get old, potential inheritors will fight. But at the same time, it becomes more and more clear that large nations cannot be managed in a fully democratic way, as can be seen in the U.S. at the moment. If the PRC opens up internally and also accepts that Taiwan follows its own path, it has the chance to become a paragon for the whole world. Its leadership in regenerative energies and electric cars are a step in the right direction. Ratiocratic elements could play a role towards a democracy which would function also under the conditions of an AI saturated and aging world and which would not anymore require heavy handed authoritarian methods to survive.

SDFM calls on the PRC to keep in mind that the "Axis" nations which started WW I and II were finally destroyed. The PRC economy would break down if TSMC factories in Taiwan were destroyed and a trade blockade was set up. This might lead to an overthrow of the current PRC leaders as the nation is not used to accepting failure, even if the basic governance structure is not changed. We hope that the PRC and CCP leadership is wise enough to employ patience and