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Declarations of the SDFM 2022 / 2023

Declaration on the Election of Javier Milei as President of Argentina (2023.11.20)

The election of Javier Milei, a fascist libertarian maverick, to the offfice of President of Argentine will most probably ruin the country and create a wave of emigrants leaving this potentially rich nation. While this is a SEP (Someone Else's Problem) inflicted by the Argentinians on themselves, the SDFM is far more concerned on the prospect of war.

We predict an attack on the Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas) around the end of Milei's term in office, 2027 or 2028, with the political goal of distraction and usage of nationalist feelings to win a second term in office in spite of the expected economic crisis. The UK is well advised to prepare for such an eventuality.

Declaration on the Situation in Israel and Gaza (2023.10.29)

With deep sorrow, the SDFM follows the development of the situation in Israel and Gaza after the terror atrocities commited by Hamas on 2023.10.07. Following the Declaration published on 2023.02.28, we ask both sides in the conflict to operate in a way which does not make any future peace solution impossible. Hamas must release the hostages they captured, and Israel must make sure the lives and health of the civilian population of Gaza are not endangered.

The government and people of Israel need to understand that they play into the hands of Hamas by killing thousands of civilians. Hamas tries to force all Muslim nations and organisations in the region to rally behind them. They must be isolated and extracted from the region, possibly in the way the former Israeli prime minister Bennett suggested, by cutting Gaza in half and surrounding the Hamas-held areas without storming them. In addition to this, the internal refugees must be supported by international help, under the condition that they are allowed to elect representatives democratically on a yearly basis, supervised by the international community. Hamas could not have thrived under democratic conditions.

We believe that such fast cycle elections will lead to a politically more experienced Palestinian nation, slowly filtering out those parties which use hate and terror to stay in power. Both the Palestinian Authority on the West Bank and Hamas in Gaza have evaded any democratic control, leading to corrupt regimes in both territories. This was seen as favourable by right wing governments in Israel. Now Hamas is turning this around by trying to force Israel onto the same path.

If Israel now moves towards an autocratic political model, internally stabilized by war and international rejection, Hamas has won. There is currently no information available on the pending decision of the Supreme Court regarding the law which restricts its powers. It is not seen as probable, though, that it will start a legal conflict with the Government during this conflict. This might mean that even if Israel is able to control Gaza in some months, it will have lost the war. An autocratic Israel will continue on its current path, losing internal openness and international support.

The "Foregone Conclusion" doctrine mentioned in the previous declaration refers to a scene in D. Adams' "Hitchhiker", where the chances of a soccer game are discussed in a situation where it is clear that the planet Earth will be destroyed in the next few hours. We apply this term towards the situation in Israel and Palestine with a deep sympathy towards the Jewish people, but also towards all other humans searching for peace in the region.

The internal population development already impacts Israel's defense, as the two groups with the highest population growth, the Arab Israeli and the Haredim (Orthodox), are not drawn into the army. The Haredim have only about half the level of car ownership per family compared with mainstream Israeli, which is one of the factors leading to their high population growth. Their politically conservative stance will strengthen the authoritarian trends in Israel.

On another level, the development and proliferation of arms technology, especially missiles, autonomous drones, bioweapons and even nuclear weapons, makes it possible to overwhelm a comparatively small country and its people without giving them a chance of retaliation against "same level" state actors. This breaks the principle of deterrence. With missile technology, this already is an established fact. But the development of autonomous drone technology has only just begun, with publicly available technology like smartphones, solar panels and commercial drones to be combined into powerful long range weapons. Regarding nuclear weapons, it is well known that Iran is at the threshold of owning them, which will lead to a wave of nuclear proliferation by Arab countries.

At the same time, it is becoming clear that Climate Change will severely impact the Mediterranean region, making agriculture impossible. Both Israel and the Arab states will be impacted also by the combination of population growth and climate change on the African continent - the only land route from Africa to Asia and Europe goes through Egypt and Israel. Israel may "win" any battle against Palestinian groups, but still lose its existence. There are a number of historic and recent examples of such situations, even from the same region. Israel and the Arab states would need to come together not only formally, but also in their hearts and minds, to have any chance to survive. This is now highly improbable, if not impossible.

One consequence of all of the above is that SDFM expects major emigration of Israelis towards Europe and the U.S. in the coming decade. It might come suddenly, caused by a massive attack by several regional powers including Hizbollah, or gradually, caused by economic, political and cultural pressure. The F.M. call upon European nations, especially Germany, to open their arms towards these emigrants.

Update (2023.11.20)

The population of the Gaza territory has risen from 340'000 in 1970 to 2'100'000 in 2021. While the SDFM has no information about the number of cars in the territory, it is known that in all of the Palestinian territories, just 376'000 cars were present, probably the majority of them in the West Bank which has a lower if still high population growth rate. Since 2021, Israel has imposed a car import ban on Gaza. With this, Israel has actually supported the extreme population growth in Gaza if one accepts the theory of AAD scientists that car density has a strong correlation with the fall of birth rates.

Update (2024.01.26)

In the meantime, the Israeli Supreme Court has decided that the law restricting its ability to reject laws is void, based on a bare majority supported by a now pensioned justice. Current polls give the Netanyahu government no majority if there were elections now, but the government still has time and the war against Hamas will probably continue on. The human rights situation in Gaza has become unbearable, with the large majority of people driven from their homes and the infrastructure mostly destroyed. The International Court of Justice has decreed that Israel must refrain from any acts of genocide and suppress genocidal propaganda in the country.

Declaration on the Situation in Israel (2023.02.28)

The Federal Micronations have up to now refrained from issuing statements on the situation in Israel and Palestine. We have been following the "Foregone Conclusion" Doctrine which states that in the long run, both the climate and the political situation in the region will degrade to a point where a modern democratic state cannot survive any more.

Unluckily, the situation is now degrading quite quickly, with the Palestinian-Israeli conflict heating up and especially with an internal conflict between liberal and religious-fascist Israelis flaming up. Some 120'000 people have demonstrated in Tel Aviv against the judicial coup the proto-fascist government is attempting. Furthermore, many high level representatives are wondering which authority to follow if the Supreme Court declares the laws invalid which would allow the decisions of the same Supreme Court to be overturned by a parliamentary majority. This point could be reached in the next few weeks or months.

The combination of this legal paradox with a clear geographic distribution of the two sides point to the possibility of a civil war or a coup. In most countries, liberals would be too peaceful to resist such a turn towards dictatorship, but we believe that the high level of military experience especially of non-religious citizens makes resistance possible.

At the same time, the government has the option to attack Iran, on the grounds that Iran is approaching the point where it can obtain nuclear weapons. Such an attack would force all internal opponents to rally behind the government. The same is valid for a high tensions situation either with Iran or with the Palestinians, which would at least block any military attempts to oppose the government. The current wave of West Bank conflicts therefore supports the government. The government might also use such an opportunity to secure further powers.

The F.M. sides with the liberal and democratic part of the population of Israel. We declare any attempts to convert the state into a religious dictatorship as criminal. Such a state will in no case survive in the long term, while a democratic Israel could find ways to co-exist with Palestinians and with the neighbouring countries. Both Jordan and Lebanon are the most democratic Arab countries of the region, and in both Syria and Egypt, attempts were made to move in that direction. This may partially be an indirect influence of a democratic and strong Israel. It is therefore in the interest of the whole region that Israel remains an open democracy.

Update (2023.10.12)

The tension between Israel and Hamas in Gaza has escalated, with an unprecedented and bloody attack on Israeli towns around the Gaza strip. The F.M. strongly denounce this aggression by Hamas. At the same time, the F.M. asks Israel to make sure that the consequences for the civilian population of Gaza, more than 2 million, are kept to a minimum. The price of a massacre of civilians will be unbearable and would destroy the country.

As predicted above, the situation has led to a rally behind the government and even a move towards an Unity Government in Israel. No information is available at the moment regarding the critical question of the Supreme Court restrictions. An Unity Government probably would require a compromise on this issue. During the conflict, we expect that the Supreme Court will delay any decision on this issue.

Both the Arzakh conflict which now has been finally resolved by displacing the Armenian population and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict which remains unsolvable unless one or both of the population groups are displaced from the territory carry a pre-echo of the general situation Europe will be facing in the coming decades and centuries. A dominating player, supported by a world power, fails to seek a permanent peaceful settlement with weaker neighbours. Those neighbours rise in power, due to various causes like population growth, technology or newly found wealth, and use a window of opportunity to conquer the formerly dominating player. In Armenia, this sequence has reached a maximum, in Israel it is already recognizable and for the whole of Europe, it can be anticipated, looking at the immigration pressure, the planned measures against the immigrants and the low European birth rates.

Declaration on the Rebellion in Iran (2022.11.09)

The Federated Micronations fully support the Iranian women and men protesting against the theocratic regime following the murder of Mahsa Amini on 2022.09.16. The FM condemns the Iranian regime and its supporters, especially the "Revolutionary Guards" and other pseudo military organisations.

We also condemn the export of Iranian drones and possibly ballistic missiles to Russia, supporting the Russian attack on Ukraine. With great uneasiness, we follow the Iranian progress towards obtaining nuclear weapons. The Iranian efforts to become a dominating power in the region and export its medieval tyrannic religio-political system threaten peace and create much destruction and death in countries like Syria or Yemen.

Therefore, we believe the Iranian revolutionaries, under the slogan "Woman, Life, Freedom", have the chance to break the cycle of destruction and deserve the full support of the F.M. and of many other nations.

Declaration on the Threat of a Russian Invasion in Ukraine (2022.02.11)

Today, after a long buildup of Russian forces on all sides of Ukraine, information came up that Putin has issued the orders for the invasion of Ukraine to the Russian Army. All current information points to an attack on 2022.02.16 or the following days, during the Olympic Games in Beijing, PRC. The FM team set up to observe this crisis, JCOT expects a massive attack from multiple sides with severe consequences for Ukraine and the world. On 2021.04.07 , the SDFM has already issued a Declaration on this subject which, with this Declaration, is being reconfirmed.

The F.M. strongly protest against the stationing of Russian and Belarusian troops in positions threatening Ukraine. Any attack on Ukraine will lead to a full economic boycott of Belarus and Russia by the Federated Micronations and of a categorization of the civil and military leadership of these countries as War Criminals. Russia and Belarus must be forced to pay reparations for all damages incurred by Ukraine and Ukrainian citizens. Crimea and Donbas must be returned to Ukraine.

In case of an attack, the F.M. calls for a blockade of the entry points to the Baltic and Black Sea, Skagerrak and Dardanelles for all Russian ships, civil and military. As Russia and Belarus are breaking existing OSCE and U.N. treaties, they cannot expect historic treaties to be upheld. All western ports must be closed to Russian ships, all western airports closed to Russian and Belarusian air traffic.

The F.M. have already sent financial support to the Ukrainian Army on a small scale and pledge to enhance this support. In case of war, the F.M. pledge to support Ukrainian refugees as much as possible. We ask the western governments to do their part in sending military support to Ukraine.

We sincerely hope that Russia comes to its senses and refrains from attacking Ukraine, which would be an unprecedented action in the modern age and which could set in motion a chain of events which, by the few survivors, might be called "World War 3" or even "Armageddon".

Even those of us who do not believe in a Superior Entity now pray to Allah, God, Jahwe, the Lady, the Lord Commander and Sol Invictus that Peace will Prevail!

Update (2022.02.24)

The prayers have failed, Russia is attacking. We reconfirm the above calls for a complete blockade of Russia. Putin, Lukashenka and the responsible power circle in Russia and Belarus have to be tried as War Criminals, which is possible e.g. in Germany for the "preparation of a war of agression". The FM will continue to support Ukraine in their resistance against Russian agression.

Declaration on the Kazakhstan Rebellion (2022.01.07)

Two days ago, rebels in Kazakhstan have risen against their autocratic and corrupt government led by President Tokayev and ex-President Nazarbayev. The rebels have at an early point resorted to violence and have acquired weapons from state depots. The Federated Micronations do not condemn this, as the suppression of earlier protests in many countries, e.g. Belarus or Myanmar, have shown that the autocrats of this world have learned how to suppress peaceful risings even if those are supported by more than 80% of the population. When a combination of targeted corruption, terror, disinformation and manipulation ceases to work, the autocrats will use their corrupted armed forces and police to drown protests in blood. The consequence of this practice can be observed in Syria and now in Kazakhstan - rebels will arm themselves and resort to bloodshed, too. The higher the pressure, the more damaging the explosion, a lesson easily learned from steam cooking. The high time of peaceful mass risings, from the late 1940s to the 1990s, seems to be over, changing the world into a more dangerous place than it was in the last 50 years.

In the current situation, the SDFM sees the only way out in a combination of externally guaranteed stability (ironically, through Russia) and internal opening, with grievances addressed and corrupt elites removed by semi-democratic elections. The high proportion of minority populations, especially the Russians, poses an explosive risk in any case. But we see it as more probable that the Kazakstan government, together with Russia, will try a heavy-handed political approach which will not resolve anything.