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Declarations of the SDFM 2020/21

Declaration on the Unilateral Recognition of the Independence of Nouvelle Caledonie (2021.12.15)

Since the assumption of sovereignty over Sandy Island as an Sovereign Overseas Territority of the Federated Micronations, the F.M. have basically become a neighbour of Nouvelle Caledonie. In this role, we have been observing the discussions on the last of 3 votes on Independence, which will take place on 2021.12.12. As the most important organisation of the Kanaks, FLNKS has decided to boycot this referendum due to the consequences of the ongoing Corona crisis, the outcome of the referendum can safely be predicted as a "No".

This situation is an archetypical example of a case where the long term result (independence) is obvious, but the road to this result is blocked. The long term independence is a logical result of the fact that the proportion of the Kanak population is slowly growing, approaching majority in a limited number of decades. But the core point is that a semi-colonial dependence on a country on the other half of the globe is a metastable construct which will automatically break up in a major political and military crisis. Many examples for this can be found in the history of nation creation and decolonisation both after WW I and WW II.

To ignore this, to hope all will stay the same for ever, is a child-like behaviour which reduces resilience against future crises. It is also a recipe for catastrophe when change cannot be postponed anymore. Wise politicians create structures to allow for this change, which often are organisations binding partner nations together and creating a common security structure. Examples for these structures are the Commonwealth and the Community of Independent States. Even the United Kingdom itself can be seen as such a structure. The most important success factor of such structures is that the members understand themselves as being on the same level (in principle) and to be free to leave the structure. Also, all sides need to gain tangible profit from being members. The right of free movement is an example of this.

Therefore, the SDFM sees it to be mandatory that Nouvelle Caledonie becomes an independent republic within a Francophone network of independent states, and unilaterally recognizes it as "Republique du Nouvelle Caledonie". Although we fear that the decision to have this "final" referendum on 2021.12.12 will lead to issues and even violence, we hope that there will be a negotiated solution acceptable to all parties in the future.

Declaration on the Breakdown of the Western Afghanistan mission and the Afghan Central Government (2021.08.27)

The breakdown of Afghanistan must be seen as a pivotal point in history. It is a failure of the Western concept of centrally ruled "democratic" countries, democratic in a very restricted sense, more like a simulation of real democracy. Most currently existing states have been formed following that concept, with the majority currently stable, But under worsening external conditions, the conflicts between rural and urban areas and between different ethnic / linguistic / religious groups or tribes within these often artificial or arbitrary states cannot be suppressed any more. There is a high probability that in the current decade, a number of these more or less centralized countries will start to break up in civil wars. Ethiopia, with the Tigray and Oromo conflicts, is a similar example.

The West is no longer willing or able to stabilize these states on a sufficient scale, especially as minor players like Russia or Turkey seem to relish in pouring oil into the simmering fires, like in Syria and Libya. What these states neglect is that they are basically in the same situation as many of the crisis states, centralized but under huge internal tensions generated by ethnic differences and corrupt elites.

These developments may lead to a global breakdown compareable to the end of the Roman Empire, with an unimaginable loss of culture and of human lifes. A long term strategy has to be developed to avoid such a global breakdown of political structures in a time where the climate crisis will put populations and governments under the highest imaginable pressure.

Counter-intuitively, the SDFM believe that a genuine nationalism based on local unity between ruled and rulers, both in regards to language and religion, is a way forward. This does not mean a strengthening of the centralized states, but a controlled devolution towards city-states integrated in their rural environment. The rural population would see "their" city as "their" state, thus at least somewhat damping the rural-urban conflict. City governments would come together to form a "country", but with a limited central authority and, to guarantee their sovereignty, the right to withdraw from that "country" at any point. Especially in states with lack of democratic traditions and experience, the central government would not be "elected" by usually manipulated elections, but would be selected by negotiation to represent all involved city-states, ideally with a rotating presidentship. Mirroring the political structures, the armed forces would have to be organized on a de-centralized base, too.

Of course, this suggestion is not a recipe for every situation and state worldwide, but especially in instable, artificial states based on colonial borders, it might help to stabilize the regions.

Within the FM, there are states like the SRM which is centered on the city of Murwillumbah, and states like the Balanda Republic which is built onto such an autonomous city structure. The population of the RC is strongly bound by common history, enabling the RC to operate as a central state with multiple city centers. The FM itself is the product of devolution and decentralization of an instable empire-state. There are other examples of states operating on such a base, like Switzerland.

To supplement such a strategy, cultural measures are required, too. Local cultures have to be supported and propagated, by literature and media in local languages. If, like in many Arab countries, media and elites communicate in a different language than the rural and the poor urban population, unity between rulers and ruled cannot be achieved. In this regards, the West may find its role, with advanced media of communication and with active communities of emigrants from all over the world. These ressources must be activated and supported.

Declaration on the Belarusian regime's Air Piracy (2021.05.24)

Yesterday, the Belarusian dictator Lukashenka ordered his Air Force to force a Ryan Air airliner on its way from Athens to Vilnius to land in Minsk, with claims of a bomb threat. The airliner was to leave the Belarusian air space two minutes later and was already approaching Vilnius. The purpose of this action was to arrest Roman Protasevich, a Belarusian journalist based in Vilnius.

This violation of international air traffic rules, endangering an airliner filled with passengers, is a clear act of air piracy. The FM strongly condemn this and declare a full economic blockade against all Belarusian institutions and citizens who are not supporting the unilaterally recognized government of the Belarusian Democratic Republic and the resistance to the Lukashenka regime.

The FM expects the EU and US to enact measures to force the Lukashenka regime to free Roman Protasevich, including measures against the property of regime owned corporations and their agents, and, if required, also against the freedom of movement of those agents. Lukashenka himself has assumed responsibility for this act of piracy, which means he should be treated like a Pirate captain according to current international law, at the Den Haag International Court of Justice.

Declaration on the Russian Agression against Ukraine (2021.04.17)

Currently, a massive buildup of Russian forces in the areas bordering Ukraine is being reported from various sources. International analysts mostly see this as just a threatening pose by Putin, with the goal of testing the resolve of the new U.S. administration and / or forcing Ukraine to supply water to Crimea and accept the separation of Donbass.

The SDFM believes these developments are far more threatening. Vladimir Putin has displayed a clear pattern of military aggression which has been an important factor of his career. In 1999, when he was Prime Minister of Russia, he launched a bloody invasion into Chechenia, which then was a de-facto independent state which had signed a peace agreement with Russia. The victory in this war cleared his way to the Presidency.

In 2008, months after Putin had again become Prime Minister of Russia in a role switch with Dimitri Medvedev, Russia invaded Georgia to support the de-facto independent South Ossetia, which was threatened to be reabsorbed by Georgia. Russian troops not only stabilized the South Ossetian forces, but expanded their territory and pushed deep into Georgia. They also helped the second separatist state on Georian territory, Abkhasia, to extend their territory. This operation was clearly against international law. During that war, the Capricornian State Department declared their support for Georgia and predicted that the next Russian aggression would be directed against Ukraine, documented by a 2008 Capricornia Post stamp issue .

That invasion took place in 2014. Crimea was annexed and the Donbass occupied by Russian mercenaries and the Russian Army. The international reaction was muted, there were some sanctions against Russia, but trade continued, with the German government pushing the NorthStream 2 pipeline connecting Russia and Germany. The involvement into the Syrian civil war, which started in 2015, can also be seen as a part of this pattern, although it did not lead to territorial acquisitions.

The pattern is clear - on average, every 7 years a Russian attack on neighbouring countries has taken place. In each case, it served to stabilize Putin's internal standings and career ambitions. Currently, his support in the population is falling again, for economic reasons and also as a consequence of the Corona crisis which puts pressure on the governments of most countries. People tend to think in patterns, and Putin's pattern is to use war as a distraction and to mobilize his supporters. International reactions to the last four wars under Putin's rule were not strong enough to make it clear to the population and elite that such actions carry consequences. Therefore we hold it as highly probable that the current preparations will lead to a large scale invasion of Ukraine.

In the present, it is almost impossible to secretly prepare a large invasion with tanks and artillery. Ukraine is well positioned to repel a hybrid 2014-like invasion, therefore the only way is to prepare for an invasion openly, but keep the enemy guessing if it is for real or only as a threat. That is what is currently happening.

The reaction of the West must be much stronger this time, otherwise the chain of attacks will never be broken. Russian nationalists are eyeing the Baltic states, Finland and maybe even parts of Poland. There are two logical actions which the West should announce to Russia.

One is a full trade and sea blockade. This will be hard on countries depending on Russian gas, but that can be solved. The sea blockade will have to follow the pattern Russia is already developing - the Kerch street, connecting Crimea to Russia, is now blocked, cutting off Ukrainian coal and steel transports from Mariupol. Although the Bosporus is covered by international treaties, NATO might close the Dardanelles and the Skagerrak and of course all Western ports worldwide for Russian ships. The same must happen for international payment systems.

The second one is military support for Ukraine. The country is split in two halves by the River Dnepr. As soon as the invasion starts, troops from some Western countries (Poland, US, Baltics, Turkey) should be stationed at the western bank of the river and around Kiev and other large cities on the Dnepr and beyond (eg Poltawa, town twinned to Musograd City) to make clear that the existence of Ukraine as an independent state will continue, therefore avoiding a "quisling state" scenario where Ukraine becomes a Russian puppet state like Belarus. Although the SDFM sees Turkey as a questionable democracy, Turkish drones, of which Ukraine already has purchased a number, might be the most important element in the defense of Ukraine.

Both WW I and especially WW II have shown that the tendency of democratic states to look away when autocratic states annex territories and start "small" wars does not help to contain those autocratic states. But the history of those wars has also shown that democracies will, at one point, get their act together and defeat those agressive dictatorships, although at very high costs. Unluckily, some allies of the democracies were, and are, on the verge of becoming dictatorships themselves. But that is another story, to be discussed at a future point.

Update 2021.04.20: Russian preparations have reached a critical level. More than 100'000 soldiers have been positioned with their respective hardware, including paratroopers and attack aircraft on Crimea. The Russian Northern Fleet, including submarines, has been sent out to sea. With good weather expected around 2021.05.01, FADO analysts point to that time window in regards to a possible attack, but possibly even earlier due to the defined time windows for airspace closing around Crimea, which ends on 2021.04.24. Preparations are also seen on the Western side, with two Navy units each from the US and UK having entered or entering the Black Sea, and US Air Force units sent to Poland , as part of a joint exercise.

Update 2021.08.27: The Russian threat to Ukraine has been reduced on the surface. A high number of troops have left the critical regions, but a high proportion of their equipment has been left in bases near the border. A critical time will be the Zapad 2021 maneuver, which will take place in Belarus in mid September. It is possible that the troops assembled there will be used to invade Ukraine in a tweezer movement, with the massive forces stationed on Crimea coming from the south to split Ukraine into two halves.

Update 2021.12.01: Although no invasion was attempted in the September to November timeframe, tensions have reached a new high, with the United States officially warning Russia that an invasion will result in severe economic measures. More than 100'000 Russian troops have already been assembled, while Belarusian troops are reportedly also transferred to the border of Ukraine, and railway tracks in occupied Eastern Ukraine being cleared for the first time since 2014. The SDFM analysis from April 2021 is still seen as correct. A potential invasion timeframe might be January / February 2022 as it is important for an invading army that the ground is frozen, in order to avoid heavy military hardware being stuck in the mud. In that sense, let us hope for a warm and rainy winter in Ukraine.

Further updates on the escalating situation will be made on the corresponding State Department Report .

Declaration on the freedom of Hong Kong and East Turkestan (2021.03.11)

Yesterday, the Chinese Communist Party decided to amend the constitution of Hong Kong to make sure only "Patriots" are elected to the "Parliament". A patriot, by their definition, is a person who supports the rule of the Chinese Communist Party and rejects the indepence of Hong Kong. This is as Orwellian as can be - Patriots are Traitors and Traitors Patriots, True is False and Green is Red.

At the same time, in the eastern outreaches of the Chinese lands, in East Turkestan, measures have been taken which not only "border on genocide", as the SDFM stated earlier, but now have been identified to tick every box on the Genocide definition list . This is a clear sign that the Chinese Communist Party leadership has given up on respectability. They should understand that not only history will remember them as what they really are, but also the Chinese people, in a crisis, might not treat them nicely.

The irony is that there is a factor in the development of China which the CCP leadership, after causing it in the past, cannot control anymore - the ageing of the population. Originally the One Child Policy was a more or less reasonable attempt to avoid overpopulation, but the fact that it is still partially existing as two child policy is due to the interests of corrupt leaders on many political levels.

It was an illusion that to remove this would stop the ageing process. The number of births in 2020 was only half as high as it was expected to be after the abolition of the One Child Policy. The urbanisation and automobilisation of China, pushed by the economic interests of the leadership, lead to a very low birthrate, together with other factors like social attitudes or housing prices, The country actually had a double digit percentage fall of the birth rate in 2020 .

The causes for this, especially the effect of a high car ownership rate, have been discussed elsewhere. The result of this trend is that the Chinese growth and dominance story will end in a fairly hard stop, possibly caused by an attempt to invade the Republic of Taiwan.

The F.M. calls out to the CCP leadership to stop striving for world dominance and to open up the country, decentralize it and allow self rule for the suppressed ethnic regions even if this means that Tibet and East Turkestan might become independent at some point in their development. The current trajectory of the Chinese mainland is set to hit the ground very hard in the future, but it is still possible to change course. We do not expect the latter, though.

Declaration on the 10th Anniversary of the Recognition of the Free City of Basel / Bâle (2021.03.07)

11 years ago, the Swiss population supported a populist referendum designed to oppress Muslim citizens by forbidding to build minarets. Today, the Swiss population has voted in favour of a law making face-covering clothing illegal, with exceptions for medical purposes and traditional costumes. This law has practical consequences for only about 30 Muslim women, which shows its intent has nothing to do with real issues. It is simply a manifestation of discrimination and dislike against Muslims, targeting women in a very unchivalrous way.

Sadly, the votes for this decision came not only from Eastern Switzerland (not recognized), but also from the Fédération de la Suisse Romande (FSR) which was unilaterally recognized by the FM in 2010. This recognition is now being suspended. The only major entity involved in the referendum which voted strongly against the proposal was the Free City of Basel / Bâle , which was recognized unilaterally almost exactly 10 years ago by the FM. This recognition is hereby confirmed, with the postal services of the FM advised to issue stamps celebrating this anniversary.

Declaration on the Military Coup in Myanmar (2021.02.24)

The Federated Micronations strongly condemn the military coup in Myanmar on 2021.02.01. The coup is an attempt to move the peoples of Myanmar back to the dark times of the 20th century during which the country chafed under a highly oppressive military regime for many decades. It should be obvious to the military leadership that it is no longer feasible to suppress a much better informed population in the same way as in the past.

Currently, the resistance to the coup is peaceful, following the example of many peaceful resistance movements. In many countries, the autocrats have learned how to cope with large peaceful resistance movements, using disinformation and selective terror to contain or prevent them. But this ignores the fact that in modern societies, the power is not necessarily on the side of the army and police, as dependence on modern information systems is rising and as the "intelligence" of everyday devices like phones has reached a weaponizeable level. We do not predict that this will happen in Myanmar soon, but believe that a frustrated youth might decide to move to a new way of resistance when they see that peaceful resistance regularly runs against an unbreakable wall of disinformation and suppression.

The generals, both in Myanmar and in Thailand, soon in other countries, should note that the symbol of resistance is the three fingers symbol from the "Tributes of Panem", which was not a movie about peaceful resistance.

Update 2021.12.01: The remark regarding non-peaceful resistance has become true, with People's Democratic Forces (PDF) fighing a guerilla war on many fronts against the Tatmadaw, as the army of Myanmar is called. While the PDF are not yet very strong, the pressure on both economy and morale of the Tatmadaw might be enough to reach a tipping point where the military breaks up and ends its war against its own people.

Declaration on Near East Political Issues (2020.09.08)

The Federated Micronations have, until now, refrained to position themselves in the conflict between Israel and Palestine. The reason for this is that a good part of the Musogradian population has ancestors who, as part of their nation, carry responsibility for the most monstrous atrocities ever commited in history, the Holocaust against the Jewish people. Also, there are official and inofficial connections to both sides to regard.

However, it is felt by the FMDS that it would be immoral to keep quiet in an environment where important factors have started to change faster than ever. One factor is the attempt on the Israeli side to annex large parts of the already very small Palestinian territories.

The second factor is the continuous progress in the development of the "Weapon Systems of the 21st Century", to quote the title of a book by the visionary Stanislaw Lem. Artificial Intelligence, drone technology, even smartphones, conspire to make the world a very unsafe place. One of the lections from the Corona crisis is that unknown viruses have the power to freeze up even the richest nations. Even disinformation, as it is used today, can be regarded as an intelligent weapon, maybe in combination with AI.

The third factor is Climate Change, which continues to accelerate. The Near East region does not seem to be worst hit, on first glance. But on second glance it becomes clear that the crisis will destroy the most valuable ressource the region has - water. Long term, it will make the whole southern Mediterranean region uninhabitable. Rising sea levels will especially hit one country - the Nile delta in Egypt will be completely submerged in the far future.

These factors make a logical chain of events quite probable, which could look like this:

• Occupied territories annexation in combination with a limited "peace" with many Arab nation will generate hopelessness for Palestinians and extreme anger in opposition circles, mostly religious ones, in the Arab region.
• Intelligent autonomous drones will become ubiquitous, being used as a "deniable" terror weapon. Long ranges can be reached using light solar panels, with day breaks to charge up the drone.
• Other "cheap and smart" weapons, like biological ones, lead to response strikes and a general escalation.
• The Climate Crisis and internal anger combine to generate a 2nd wave of the Arab rebellion, with governments overthrown which currently seem to be stable.
• A spiral of violence, destruction and religious hatred ruins most countries in the region.

We see no chance anymore of exiting this cycle. In the last decades, there was at least a chance of cooperation, but that is now over. Even if it seems that peace treaties might be signed between the nations, this is an illusion.

This scenario is therefore called "Foregone Conclusion" as it predicts a destructive path without exit chances for the next decades, ending with total ecological destruction.

Update - 2021.05.14
The spiral of violence between Israel and Palestine, and also within both states, is currently escalating. The leading politicians on both sides have no motivation to de-escalate as it strengthens their positions. The current fighting will stop after some time, but it will make any permanent peace even more improbable. Jewish extremists start to behave more like Islamic extremists. They might at one point try to raze the Mosque on Temple mount, which could trigger a final round of conflict fought out with weapons of mass destruction of all 3 categories.

Declaration on the Worldwide Corona Virus Crisis - 2020.03.24

The Federated Micronations, like most nations in the world, have been put under Full Lockdown due to the Corona Virus crisis, locally also called the "Star Sickness". Like most analysts, the F.M. have been surprised by the strength of the crisis. Luckily, two agencies, FAFA and FEAT, saw the first signs of the coming crisis already in February and were able to advise the nations of the F.M. to prepare for it as far as possible under the conditions of the ongoing "Shoolscath" operation.

Many other nations worldwide were hit almost completely unprepared, paralyzed by traditional patterns of behaviour (like Italy) or internal strive defining any scientific understanding as political (like the U.S.A.). The F.M. will try to help the victims of this catastrophe in all nations, with a special focus on Italy and Germany.

What we have learned during the first stage of this crisis is that it seems to be almost impossible for politicians and citizens to understand the impact of such a catastrophe and react in time to prepare for it. Many people will deny the existence or impact of a crisis up to the last minute before it hits, and even beyond that point of time. In December 2019, the world was able to observe the same behaviour during the Australian Firestorms, where top leaders behaved as if those and their root cause, climate change, were pure fantasy. Now we see such behaviour with the leaders of many large and powerful nations, but at the same time also at the level of certain hypernormalized institutions which performed theatrical reenactments of Soviet "criticism and self-criticism" sessions only days before the lockdown which then hit them almost unprepared.

The timescale of the Corona crisis is counted in weeks and even days. While the mathematics of it, local exponential growth combined with saturation and damping effects, is well understood, most organisations and states were not able to prepare in time and make sure all required ressources are available. Solidarity between nations and people has worn thin in record time. How, then, can the world prepare for crises on a much slower timescale, the climate crisis, the destruction of natural habitats and species, the aging of the population in industrialized countries? This crisis is leaving us deeply pessimistic about the future, a mindset intensified by the isolation generated by the lockdown as well the one generated by the complexities of communication in a World Gone Wild .

Update 2021.12.01: The repeating waves of the Star Sickness, as Corona is locally known in the F.M., are still shaking the world. Even highly developed countries fail to solve the crisis, although a number of well tested vaccines are widely available. About a quarter of the population in most developed countries have proven to be immune to rational thought (if not to Corona). The positive aspect of this is that it forces and trains the governments to become more resolute. Some countries are even thinking about a general vaccination mandate or have implemented it for large groups of the population.